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Q2 2026 Market Intelligence · 78746 & 78733 · Albina Rippy CPA
Westlake Austin Real Estate Market Report: Q2 2026 Update
Albina Rippy’s quarterly analysis of Westlake and Cuernavaca market conditions — verified MLS data, trend analysis, and investment perspective from a CPA and market specialist.
Q2 2026 Market Overview: Westlake Luxury Continues to Outperform
Austin’s luxury real estate market entered Q2 2026 in a position of sustained strength that has surprised many national observers. While headlines in the broader housing market have focused on the impact of elevated mortgage rates on entry-level and mid-market demand, the Westlake and Cuernavaca luxury segments have demonstrated a resilience rooted in fundamentals that interest rate cycles do not fully explain. Wealth migration from high-tax states continues. The Austin technology employment base, though more selective in its hiring than the peak years of 2021-2022, remains robust. And the structural supply constraint that defines the Westlake market — the area simply cannot produce significant new housing inventory given its geography and zoning — continues to support pricing regardless of the rate environment.
Albina Rippy’s Q2 2026 analysis draws on verified MLS data from Travis County and Hays County, direct comparable sale analysis, and interviews with active buyer agents in the market. What follows is the most comprehensive and accurate available picture of current market conditions in Westlake’s two primary zip codes.
Westlake 78746: Q2 2026 Data
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $3,200,000 | $3,012,000 | ↑ 6.2% |
| Avg Days on Market | 28 days | 31 days | ↓ 10% |
| List/Sale Ratio | 98.4% | 97.8% | ↑ 0.6pts |
| Active Listings | 42 | 47 | ↓ 10.6% |
| Closed Sales (Q2) | 38 | 35 | ↑ 8.6% |
| Avg Price/Sq Ft) | $762 | $718 | ↑ 6.1% |
The 78746 market shows tightening inventory alongside rising prices — a combination that typically signals continued price appreciation in the near term. The reduction in active listings to 42 from 47 a year ago represents roughly 1.1 months of supply based on current absorption rates, which is extremely tight by historical standards. Any monthly supply below three months is generally considered a strong seller’s market; 78746 is at less than a third of that threshold.
Cuernavaca 78733: Q2 2026 Data
| Metric | Q2 2026 | Q2 2025 | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Median Sale Price | $2,400,000 | $2,207,000 | ↑ 8.7% |
| Avg Days on Market | 34 days | 40 days | ↓ 15% |
| List/Sale Ratio | 97.1% | 96.3% | ↑ 0.8pts |
| Active Listings | 28 | 33 | ↓15.2% |
| Closed Sales (Q2) | 24 | 21 | ↑14.3% |
| Avg Price/Sq Ft) | $591 | $591 | ↑8.8% |
Cuernavaca’s 78733 market is outperforming 78746 on a percentage basis across multiple metrics: higher appreciation rate (8.7% vs 6.2%), faster velocity improvement (days on market down 15% vs 10%), and stronger list/sale ratio improvement. This outperformance reflects the “catch-up” dynamic that Albina has been tracking since 2024 — the market is recognizing that 78733 offers comparable fundamentals to 78746 at a persistent price discount, and that discount is slowly being arbitraged away.
Interest Rate Impact on Westlake Luxury
The conventional wisdom that rising interest rates suppress real estate demand is correct at the national level and for the entry-to-mid market in particular. It applies imperfectly, however, to the Westlake luxury segment. The buyer profile in this market is heavily weighted toward high-net-worth individuals who are less rate-sensitive for several reasons: many are purchasing with significant equity from prior transactions or with inherited wealth; a meaningful share purchase in all-cash; and among financed buyers, the financial sophistication to use jumbo ARMs, bridge loans, and other structures that reduce rate exposure is common.
The data bears this out. Westlake closed sales volumes have held firm through the rate increase cycle that began in 2022 and continued into 2024. The market briefly softened in terms of price per square foot in 2023, but recovered fully by mid-2024 and has been appreciating steadily since. The 2026 trajectory suggests continued appreciation through the balance of the year, assuming no significant deterioration in Austin’s employment base.
Eanes ISD Overall Market Data
| Sub-Market | Median Price | Avg DOM | List/Sale | YoY |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| West Lake Hills (78746) | $4.1M | 22 days | 99.2% | ↑4.8% |
| Rollingwood (78746) | $2.8M | $2.8M | 98.1% | ↑5.9% |
| Rob Roy on the Lake (78733) | $4.4M | 31 days | 96.8% | ↑9.2% |
| Austin Lake Estates (78733) | $1.9M | 28 days | 97.8% | ↑10.1% |
| Eanes ISD Overall | $2.8M | 31 days | 97.9% | ↑7.1% |
Austin Lake Estates’s 10.1% year-over-year appreciation is the standout data point in this table, reflecting the strong value proposition of lake-adjacent 78733 properties for buyers who want the Cuernavaca lifestyle at accessible price points. Rob Roy on the Lake’s 9.2% appreciation reinforces the broader 78733 outperformance narrative.
Albina's Investment Perspective: Forecast for 2026
The forward-looking indicators for the Westlake and Cuernavaca markets remain constructive through the balance of 2026. Inventory is tight and unlikely to expand meaningfully — the geographic and zoning constraints on new supply are permanent features of this market. Demand from wealth migration and local employment remains solid. The interest rate environment, while elevated relative to the 2020-2022 period, has been absorbed without significant price deterioration in the luxury segment.
Albina’s base case forecast is for continued price appreciation of 5-8% in 78746 and 7-10% in 78733 through the end of 2026, with 78733 continuing to outperform as the convergence thesis plays out. The biggest downside risk is a significant deterioration in Austin’s technology employment base, which would reduce demand from tech executive buyers who represent a meaningful share of the market. This risk appears moderate rather than high given the diversification of Austin’s employer base since 2022.
For sellers, the current market presents an excellent opportunity — inventory remains tight, qualified buyers are active, and well-presented properties continue to receive strong offers. For buyers, the message is to act with preparation and decisiveness when the right property appears, because waiting for a better market in 78746 or 78733 has historically proven to be an expensive strategy.
Frequently Asked Questions
How often is this market report updated?
Albina Rippy updates the Council RE Group’s market data every 90 days, timed to align with the quarterly close of Austin MLS data. In-between updates, Albina monitors real-time transaction activity and will flag significant market shifts to clients in our database. To receive market updates directly, subscribe at the bottom of this page or contact us.
Where does your market data come from?
All data referenced in Council RE Group market reports is sourced directly from the Austin Board of Realtors MLS and verified against Travis County public records. We do not rely on third-party aggregators like Zillow or Redfin, whose data for the luxury market is frequently delayed, incomplete, or methodologically inconsistent with actual MLS data.
Is now a good time to buy in Westlake Austin?
Based on the Q2 2026 data, Westlake and Cuernavaca remain strong seller’s markets with thin inventory and continued appreciation. For buyers who have been waiting for a market correction in the luxury segment, the data suggests that correction has not materialized and is unlikely in the near term given structural supply constraints. Buyers who are financially prepared and have identified their criteria should engage actively rather than waiting.
How do interest rates affect Westlake luxury home prices?
The Westlake luxury market has shown relatively low sensitivity to interest rate changes compared to the broader housing market. This is because the buyer demographic includes a higher proportion of cash buyers and buyers with significant equity who can structure transactions to minimize rate exposure. The data from 2022-2025 shows that Westlake prices absorbed the rate increase cycle with minimal net price decline, recovering fully by mid-2024.
Can I get a custom market report for my specific neighborhood or street?
Yes. Albina Rippy prepares custom comparable sales analyses and market intelligence reports for specific addresses, streets, and neighborhoods for clients who are evaluating a purchase or considering a listing. Contact The Council to request a custom analysis.
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